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A flaw in fivethirtyeight (and a meta-analytic repair)
This post continues my discussion of how to meta-analyze state polls. My most recent post was on Saturday morning. Today I’d like to focus on a particular strength of meta-analysis, its use as a...
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A probabilistic view of the 50-state strategy
A recent story tells about McCain's focused ad spending in battleground states, and Obama's broader spending pattern. McCain is focusing on battleground states, while Obama is spreading resources more...
View ArticleStopping false beliefs - lessons for journalists from brain science
In my day job I'm a neuroscientist. Usually this does not intersect with politics, but today's an exception.In June, my book co-author Sandra Aamodt and I wrote for the New York Times about how our...
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The disappearing Bradley effect
Over at the Princeton Election Consortium I have been concerned with factors that may systematically bias polls. Accuracy is an essential component of using national polls to gauge where national...
View ArticleThe statistics of Iran 2009: Part 1, pre-election polls
By now hundreds of statistically minded people are poring over Iranian election data. Here's part 1 of my analysis, which is also cross-posted at the Princeton Election Consortium.Three general...
View ArticleThe statistics of Iran 2009: Part 1, pre-election polls
By now hundreds of statistically minded people are poring over Iranian election data. Here's part 1 of my analysis, which is also cross-posted at the Princeton Election Consortium.Three general...
View ArticleBirther Orly Taitz gets her court date...sort of
(Cross-posted at the Princeton Election Consortium)Back on the false-belief beat...sort of.I've previously written about false belief formation from the standpoint of neuroscience. One current...
View ArticleA nonpartisan solution to the Rasmussen issue
(Cross-posted at the Princeton Election Consortium)Many readers of this site know that pollsters vary in their methods. However, existing solutions, such as correcting for bias, have attracted...
View ArticleWhat's wrong with the national polls?
(Cross-posted at the Princeton Election Consortium)National polling averages are contradictory: Pollster gives Romney by +0.4%, TalkingPointsMemo gives Romney by +0.6%, and RealClearPolitics gives...
View ArticlePrinceton Election Consortium - a technical announcement
Greetings, all. My name is Sam Wang. I founded the Princeton Election Consortium. The site's Meta-Analysis of State Polls started here in 2004 as a diary during the Bush v. Kerry race. Now, in...
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Princeton Election Consortium - Resolving national vs. state polls
In this year's race, national polls show a tie, while state polls show a decisive Obama advantage. The discrepancy has interested many commentators on the right: Karl Rove, Ross Douthat. Also Andrew...
View ArticleRace and mental traits: Nicholas Wade's third error
(Cross-posted at the Princeton Election Consortium) An octogenarian once invited me to his old, exclusive East Coast club to give a talk about neuroscience, my area of specialty. Afterwards, as we...
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