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A probabilistic view of the 50-state strategy

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A recent story tells about McCain's focused ad spending in battleground states, and Obama's broader spending pattern. McCain is focusing on battleground states, while Obama is spreading resources more broadly.

Why the mismatch in strategies? Here I will give a quantitative argument that in terms of optimal resource allocation, both patterns of behavior make perfect sense, given the campaigns probably think their best strategies are for winning.

[Cross-posted at election.princeton.edu]


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